US backs Pakistan, China arms it — why India must rethink its strategy

Donald Trump finally got his ceasefire, and a shot at the Peace Nobel. He even publicly toyed with the idea of regime change in Iran in the run-up to the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities. Thankfully, unlike in the India-Pakistan context, he did bang heads together, cussed, and brought calm to the skies.Trump should actually claim credit for executing a silent and smooth regime change — in Pakistan. With an intimate lunch meeting between him and Asim Munir on June 18, the US president effectively blessed Pakistan with a military leadership, completely undermining its elected civilian government. The message rang through clearly: Rawalpindi has the support of Washington, and Pakistan’s political stakeholders in Islamabad should fall in line.Shehbaz Sharif’s government is a figurehead, and there it will remain. While Munir took with him his ISI DG Asim Malik to the DC lunch, Sharif had to be content with a phone call from Marco Rubio [US secretary of state]. This was a bigger tectonic shift than Trump inserting himself into the India-Pakistan conflict in May.Indians felt betrayed by Trump’s courtship of Pakistan-Munir as a slight to New Delhi. The US does not see it that way. It was reinstalling ‘friendly’ forces in power in Pakistan, particularly as West Asia is sitting on top of a powder keg. It also helped that Pakistan’s leadership had embraced crypto in a way many others have not.The new CEO of Pakistan Crypto Council declared recently that crypto would give both Pakistan and bitcoin an ‘image makeover’. Trump has embraced both these developments.Basically, what Rawalpindi-facilitator and ‘Imran Khan remover’ former assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs Donald Lu started was completed by Donald Trump.Back in 2022, Lu’s infamous message to Pakistan’s ambassador to the US Asad Majeed Khan presented a clear choice — remove Imran Khan. According to a leaked text of the cable, Lu reportedly said, ‘I think isolation of the prime minister will become very strong from Europe and the United States.’ Lu goes on to suggest that if Khan were to ‘lose’ the confidence motion, US-Pakistan relations could be restored. ‘I think if the no-confidence vote against the prime minister succeeds, all will be forgiven in Washington because the Russia visit is being looked at as a decision by the prime minister. Otherwise, I think it will be tough going ahead.’The tacit approval of Khan’s ouster, followed by Munir’s ascendance as army chief and Khan’s continued incarceration, has received a renewed US seal of approval. Now, as field marshal with virtually no end-date, Munir is unlikely to allow Khan to make it out alive of Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail. The US embrace of Munir is complete.You can gauge Pakistani eagerness to be back in US good books and cock a snook at India, as it formally nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. That didn’t age well, with Trump jumping into an explosive war in next-door Iran. Nevertheless, two things appear to have converged — Pakistan’s efforts to appease Trump have been relatively successful; and Trump is mad as fire with India for not endorsing him. The last Modi-Trump phone-chat was undigestible in the White House.Pakistan army has always been in charge of Pakistan, with or without a coup. In recent years, though, there has been a growing disenchantment with the military, fuelled somewhat by Imran Khan. Khan was a pest, too close to Taliban and very prickly about the US and India. But he remains the most popular Pakistani leader alive. Imran Khan, in jail, remains a persistent thorn in Munir’s flesh. ShowBlurbsThe US will make big demands of Pakistan at a time when the Pakistan military is no longer overwhelmingly powerful, but can still deliver. The economy is a concern, but not much. Pakistan has reopened international pipelines of aid. China is unlikely to cavil at the rekindled Pakistan-US alliance, they’ve been familiar with it for decades. With 80% of Pakistan's defence equipment coming from China, there’s little fear Pakistan will stray too far. Much more importantly, the Pakistan-China alliance worked well for Pakistan in the recent India-Pakistan conflict.That leaves India — which has clearly lost eyes on Pakistan. We’re back to post-9/11, with Pakistan as a favoured ally. Pakistan and US are ready to sign a trade and minerals deal. China is ready to transfer 5th-gen fighters to Pakistan. Biden put curbs on Pakistan for its incipient ICBM programme — Trump is okay with it. Terror camps are being rebuilt. Pakistan may even be looking at being the ‘bridge’ between US and China, 1971-style.We have hit a rocky road with the US. The recent US travel advisory on India is a throwback, while the India trade deal is throwing up last-minute hiccups. Stars have aligned for Pakistan, the US and China in a way India never anticipated. That should be a matter of concern. Munir tasted success with his anti-Hindu tirade, which may have directly resulted in the Pahalgam attack. Munir’s ‘elevation’ was a result of Operation Sindoor. India has to be careful not to hand him more ‘victories’.India has bigger challenges to confront in Pakistan. If India wants to handle China, a weakened Pakistan is in its interest. This is India’s moment to reaffirm support to democracy in Pakistan. We have a strong stake in who rules there. Currently, India is playing a weak hand. New Delhi has to do better.The writer is CEO, Ananta Centre